Canadian Housing Affordability Hit a 4-Year Best in 2026, and the Recovery Is Already Slowing

By Alex McFadyen | Market Updates | 5 min read | Published 2026-07-10

# Canadian Housing Affordability Hit a 4-Year Best in 2026, and the Recovery Is Already Slowing **Short answer:** Owning a home in Canada got easier for the ninth time in the last ten quarters. RBC's national affordability measure fell to 53% in the first quarter of 2026, the best reading since early 2022. Condos led the way at 35.2%, within a point of where they sat before the pandemic. The catch is that the two forces behind the improvement, falling prices and falling interest rates, are both close to exhausted, and RBC itself says the recovery is "approaching the end of the recuperation phase." If you have been waiting for a better moment to buy, this is the part worth understanding before you keep waiting. ## What "53%" actually measures RBC's aggregate affordability measure is the share of a median household's pre-tax income needed to cover the costs of owning the average home: mortgage payments, property taxes, and utilities. A lower number means owning is easier. So the drop from 54.4% to 53% over the quarter, a 1.4 point improvement, is real progress. It is also a reminder of how stretched things still are. Even at a four-year best, a typical household still needs more than half its gross income to carry the average home. Better Dwelling has pointed out this is still near the affordability squeeze of the early 1990s. The direction is good. The level is not comfortable. ## The city-by-city picture The national number hides a lot of variation. Here is where the major markets landed in Q1 2026, using RBC's aggregate measure unless noted: Vancouver, at 84.1%, is still the least affordable market in the country, but it fell about 4 points on the quarter and 9.3 points over the year, the biggest improvement anywhere. Toronto came in at 65.2%, also down on the quarter, and the condo segment is the real story there, with condo affordability back to roughly its 2019 level. - **Calgary, 41.5%.** Essentially at its 30-year normal of 39.8%, after resale activity ran about 25% above pre-pandemic levels. - **Edmonton, 36.8%.** Above its long-term average of 32.9%, but still one of the more accessible major markets. - **Winnipeg, 33%.** Near its most affordable footing since 1991. - **Halifax, 41.6%.** Improving, though still 13.6 points above its 2019 level after a decade of fast price growth. - **Quebec City, 39.5%.** One of the markets moving the wrong way, sitting 9.3 points above its 10-year average. - **Montreal, 52.6%.** The clearest outlier. This is Montreal's worst affordability since 1990, home values were up 5.5% year over year, and Montreal condos now cost more to own than Toronto condos for the first time in 16 years. The pattern: the expensive coastal markets are healing fastest because they had the most room to fall, while a few affordable markets like Montreal and Quebec City are slipping the other way. ## Why affordability improved, and why that engine is running low Two things drove the nine quarters of improvement. Home prices came down or flattened across most of the country, and mortgage rates fell as the Bank of Canada cut through 2024 and 2025. Together they shrank the monthly cost of ownership faster than incomes could have on their own. Both are now near their limits. On rates, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10, 2026, its fifth hold in a row, at the bottom of its neutral range. RBC's read is that the Bank is done cutting, and the C.D. Howe Monetary Policy Council now sees the next move as a possible increase toward 2.5% by 2027 rather than a cut. If the policy rate has found its floor, the mortgage-cost side of the affordability equation has little left to give. On prices, most markets have stopped falling. RBC still expects some further softening in Vancouver into the second half of 2026, but broadly the price correction that helped buyers has run its course. That leaves one lever: income. For affordability to keep improving from here, wages have to carry the load. And the labour market is not cooperating. Most measures of wage growth are running between 3% and 3.5%, growth slowed in May, and the unemployment rate is sitting in the 6.5% to 7% range. RBC expects income gains to stay modest until 2027. ## What this means if you are waiting to buy The instinct to wait for a better deal is reasonable. It is also worth pressure-testing against what is actually left to improve. The rate side has already turned. The price side has mostly stabilized. The only remaining source of better affordability is a raise the broader economy may not deliver until 2027. So "waiting for it to get better" increasingly means waiting on your own income, not on the market. There is a real counterpoint. If you are set on Vancouver, RBC's own forecast leaves room for prices to ease a little more this year, so a patient buyer there might get a marginally better entry. But even in that case, watch the trade. A slightly lower price paired with a higher rate later can produce a larger monthly payment than today's price at today's rate. The headline price is not the thing you actually pay each month. None of this is a reason to rush. It is a reason to run your own numbers now, while the picture is clear, instead of anchoring to a bottom you will only be able to identify in hindsight. ## Frequently asked questions **Is housing affordability improving in Canada in 2026?** Yes. RBC's national affordability measure fell to 53% in Q1 2026, the best level since early 2022, marking improvement in nine of the last ten quarters. **What is the most affordable major city in Canada right now?** Among major markets, Winnipeg (33%) and Edmonton (36.8%) are the most affordable on RBC's aggregate measure, while Vancouver (84.1%) remains the least affordable. **Will housing keep getting more affordable?** Probably more slowly. The two drivers, falling prices and falling rates, are near their limits, and RBC says further gains now depend on wage growth that may not materialize until 2027. **Is now a good time to buy?** It depends on your situation, but the argument for waiting is weaker than it looks. Rates have likely found their floor and prices have mostly stabilized, so waiting mainly bets on higher future income rather than a better market. Run your specific numbers before deciding. *Thinking about buying and not sure whether to move now or wait? Book a 15-minute call and we'll run your actual numbers for your city and price range.* **Sources:** RBC Economics, "Improving housing affordability continues in most Canadian major markets," Q1 2026 (Robert Hogue, Rachel Battaglia); Bank of Canada policy rate announcement, June 10, 2026 (next decision July 15, 2026); Bank of Canada labour market analysis, May 2026.